Video: Which Republican has best chance in ?12?

>>> david gregory is moderator of "meet the press." good to have you here.

>> good to be here.

>> we look at the rise of the polls and newt gingrich , we have seen other candidates in the past sky rocket, but usually after they announce they're getting into the race. he has been hanging around in this race for a long time, at around 12, 13, 14% and now he's up there around 40. why?

>> he's consolidating that tea party support. chuck referenced the fact, 70% of the primary goes -- identify themselves as conservatives. he is getting the lion's share of the vote. the tea party folks who want to see a candidate take on president obama , they like his debate performance, they like how he's taking on the media. that drives the anger in this electorate right now.

>> when you look at this idea that he has an electability problem, is that about likability or his policies? 50% of people say they would never vote for him.

>> right. i think it's about how erratic eggs over time . i think a lot of people, including republicans, have forgotten why they dislike gingrich. they just know they dislike him. that it goes to how high his negatives are. why romney can drive those negatives up as we move forward.

>> so for mitt romney , if you're looking for a silver lining in these polling numbers, which show him in decline, and newt gingrich rising, it is that he is perhaps more electable in a general election .

>> well, i think it's that.

>> how do you communicate that?

>> you make the argument. but i think there is so much tension this year between what you have to do to win the primary fight and then how you stack up against obama in the general election . there's always that tension. i think it's exacerbated by the tea party here. i think romney not going on the offense against gingrich, driving up those negatives. but that alone is not going to cure his problem with conservatives. that they haven't trusted him and they haven't trusted him for a long while.

>> let's talk about ron paul . i know you had him on your show a week ago. and here's a guy, when you talk to his supporters, they say watch out for ron paul , he's going to surprise a lot of people in iowa and new hampshire for a couple reasons. his supporters don't poll well. in other words, these aren't the land line folks we tend to call at home. these are the cell phone folks. and also, he's got a real organized group of people out there. what are you expecting?

>> that he could pull off an upset in iowa. governor of the state says he has the best organization bar none . if you go to the caucus, it's amazing because it's really about organization, getting people there who know how to caucus. he's drawing in the same kind of voters obama did, younger voters, new voters to the process, nonrepublicans, people who are anti-war, who have real problems with the role of government. i think a huge issue in this race is what is the role of government. and paul is not ruling out a third-party run and polls well in a three-way.

>> normally i ask what you have on "meet the press" but since it's wednesday, this is for political voters.

>> nbc politics.com. if you care about politics, whether you're a junky or a casual, you're watching the "today" program, "nightly news", "meet the press," if you missed anything, go to nbcpolitics.com. if you missed the interview, want more analysis, want more of our interactive features, this is our digital home for nbc politics. it's going to be a great place.

>> look forward to it. david gregory , good to have you in new york. 16 after

Source: http://video.today.msnbc.msn.com/today/45666319/

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